Navigating the storm

The 2026 Atlantic Canada Momentum Index  report should be a loud alarm for the region’s leaders and policymakers.

PPF’s first Atlantic Canada Momentum Index report in 2023 identified an historic shift underway in the region. Out of 20 key economic and social indicators measured by the 2023 index, 16 showed momentum compared to just 10 in the rest of Canada. The report flipped the Atlantic Canada narrative, showing the region was “have-not no more.”

In 2024, the Index report showed some flickering warning lights. While there was still momentum — 16 out of 25 indicators in the expanded index — weak spots were emerging. Productivity was slowing. Business investment was slipping. Housing and health care were showing strains from an unprecedented population boom around the pandemic years. It was time to “adjust the sails” to prevent backsliding, it said.

The 2026 Atlantic Momentum Index shows momentum in 15 of 25 indicators — one less than in 2024. But it is a fragile momentum. Thirteen indicators are weaker in this year’s index compared to 2024.

Immigration, the region’s traditional engine of growth, has been hobbled by federal policy changes. Labour productivity, immigration retention and poverty rates show declining momentum. While this year’s index shows some familiar weak spots, there are some unpleasant surprises too, like a declining sense of belonging, once one of the region’s calling cards.

There have been provincial policy adjustments since 2024, including revised immigration processes, new housing sup- ports, trade-barrier cuts and infrastruc- ture investments. But the winds that have swept into the region have also proved stronger than anyone expected.

Economic uncertainty (largely not captured by the Index, which focuses on longer-term trends) looms large. Tariffs threaten to knee-cap key industries, unsettling investment decisions, supply chains and access to the U.S. market. Inflation is squeezing households and businesses.

There is a storm brewing. But for those who are prepared there are opportunities. And who, after all, knows better how to navigate a storm than Atlantic Canadians?

The region is well suited to benefit from planned major investments in defence, mining, energy and infrastructure, from Churchill Falls in Labrador, to defence projects in Nova Scotia to new mines in New Brunswick, and much more.

The purpose of the Atlantic Canada Momentum Index is to not just show important trend lines, but to use data to reinforce policy choices that must be made. There is still time to adjust the sails and put the region back on its super-charged trajectory. This report’s recommendations include calls to:

• Establish a Made-in-Atlantic Canada immigration solution and develop a labour force expansion plan
• Create a simplified, ‘one door’ regional investment portal
• Conduct a regional review of the impact of tax and regulatory policies on private-sector investment, busi- ness expansion and innovation
• Start measuring and tracking the region’s business competitiveness
• Leverage Atlantic Canada’s energy and resources to boost economic development
• Launch a public education and awareness campaign on economic development

The waters ahead are unsettled and some of the forces shaping Atlantic Canada’s future could push the region in directions that take it far off the course to prosperity. But changing conditions can also create opportunity. A favourable wind, properly harnessed, can provide the lift needed to accelerate toward the direction we have chosen. The steps are doable. What’s needed is urgency and a willingness for provinces to get out of their comfort zones and navigate the storm together. The question is not whether we can control the weather, but whether we are prepared to navigate it.